Gartner, the US information consulting firm, has just released the 2015 Top Ten Strategic Information Technology Forecasts. It has been making this prediction for many years. Although the predictions are both right and wrong, this prediction is very illuminating, especially for strategic thinking that motivates decision-making leaders. By the way, another familiar Gartner project is the Rubik's Cube, which compares all the suppliers or operators of a technology. This Rubik's Quadrant is also controversial, but many decision-makers are willing to take this "Magic Quadrant" as a reference. The author himself has used these resource decisions several times to adjust the direction.
This year's top ten strategic information technology forecasts are mostly related to the Internet of Things. And their core is digital and intelligent. Popularly, some of the techniques from sci-fi movies have gradually become reality. Note that these predictive strategies are more valuable than execution. Especially for quantitative predictions, this is an estimate of the trend.
Through these ten predictions, we will explore how to think about the strategic direction of the company.
By 2018, 20% of commercial content will be written by machines. This proposition is very explosive. The classic story in stochastic theory that "sufficient monkeys can be written as a Shakespeare" seems to be achievable. The first thing to do is the narrative category. There are already such companies, such as "NarraTIve Science", who are experimenting with automatically generating a comment on a sports game, passing the game's players, scoring, scoring errors and other specific data. In the enterprise operation, these news can be generated continuously, especially the normative results (the number of products reaches a certain goal, the first time to sell the products to Africa, etc.), you need to set some "excitation points". Soon, the machine-generated Twitter will be the norm. This prediction, and many of the following predictions, involve human replacement. The development of technology, the replacement of people is the inevitable way. NetApp founder David Hitz suggested that one day, people will be a "pet" for robots. Therefore, the author believes that this trend has more social effects than economic value.
By 2018, 6 billion smart devices will join the Internet of Things, and these smart objects require technical support. A variety of smart sensors, smart devices will be networked and these things need to be maintained. The author estimates that there will be a new industry, we can call it a "third-party Zhilian maintenance company." The original product supplier will of course provide maintenance, but due to the large number, it may be more effective to maintain it by a new one. Just like ordinary goods, it can be repaired by the original manufacturer or by a third party. This industry segmentation may have a special maintenance of an industry (vertical business) or a certain type of sensor (horizontal business).
By 2020, 5% of commercial transactions will be automatically executed by software. Commercial transactions that do not require human intervention. The author has a bold speculation that stock traders will become victims of super artificial intelligence?
By 2018, there will be more than three million employees, and their bosses are a robot. The author believes that this concept will appear in the enterprise operation department. why? Because the operating department is a relatively standard operating organization. It follows the steps of the run. For example, for a highly automated and IoT workshop, since the Internet of Things has collected all the data at the moment, how many workers are needed, how many products are produced, and how to solve the problem on the first line, there will be a perfect set. A step of. These instructions can be issued by the robot. As for workers' leave, product yields will drop, etc. There will be standard procedures. The robot boss will adjust the working range of the worker according to the situation and issue instructions. And this robot boss will be more standardized and effective than people (he can also issue instructions to all employees to go to the meeting).
By 2018, 20% of smart buildings will be subject to digital attacks. The Internet of Things is pushing forward a civilized society. From the early navigation, to the highway, to the Internet at the beginning of this century and today's Internet of Things, every such civilization has narrowed the distance of the global village. This is an open process, and the side effect is "virus." The security of the Internet of Things is an inevitable by-product. Unlike the security of the Internet, the security of the Internet of Things is not only data security, but also the security of the "object". Your network firewall not only protects the network, but also has enough intelligence to provide protection for your garage door. Will these protections be defined as the scope of a company's home (one-dimensional), just like today's Internet? Not necessarily, there can be a multidimensional, corporate or home environment that is one-dimensional, plus the commercial Internet of Things in smart buildings. The author believes that other intelligent Internet of Things will also be attacked, not only intelligent buildings.
By 2018, 50% of the best companies have fewer employees than smart machines. Tomorrow's company, there may be a choice of robots when recruiting people. The author believes that this "robot" can be an "abstract robot" and is not necessarily a real robot. May be a highly automated program or project (software automation). So when you're thinking about buying a robot for a shop floor transition, it's a good idea to consider re-evaluating the production process and see if there is an "abstract robot" service.
By 2018, the customer service department's application system will fully understand the face and voice of each customer. This is a sign of achieving batch and personalization. The Internet of Things has made the two harmonious from the original contradictory opposition. Recognizing face and voice is a revolutionary technology. Although the theory is mature, there are still many difficulties in implementation and high error rates. It needs to be recognized that once the voice face recognition system enters the mainstream, not only customer service will benefit, but also a qualitative change in network security and security. The author estimates that the traditional AAA industry (AuthenTIcaTIon, AuthorizaTIon and Accounting) will be subverted to achieve a truly comprehensive SSO (Single Sign On).
By 2018, two million employees will wear smart health bracelets or similar health equipment. Due to the popularity of the Internet of Things, health-wearing products will be defined as â€œwork-necessary conditionsâ€, especially in industries where health conditions affect benefits and other safety (eg bus drivers). This will involve personal privacy. Here is the core of the Internet of Things, which is the Internet of Things that connects things, people and data. This prediction is linked to the robot boss's predictions, and employee health data can be used as a reference factor for work schedules.
By 2020, 40% of mobile apps will be automatically formed and no longer need to be downloaded. I don't think this is a revolutionary topic, whether it is realized or not.
By 2020, 95% of cloud security incidents are caused by customer errors. The opposite of this proposition means that cybersecurity will mature. In the current Internet of Things, security is a major development direction. I believe that for five years, this topic is no longer an important area.
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