Industry experts said that China and the EU have reached a price commitment plan, and Chinese companies will avoid the high tariff of 47.6% imposed on August 6, which will save 60% of the European market for photovoltaic companies. But how to distribute the export volume among domestic enterprises will become a new problem. The photovoltaic industry will accelerate its integration in a complex environment in the future.
Industry insiders reminded that in the context of no fundamental change in overcapacity, the domestic photovoltaic industry will also be in an accelerated reshuffle and industry adjustment phase for a longer period of time.
Downstream product prices are expected to stop falling and rebound
The industry believes that the proper settlement of the trade dispute between China and Europe in photovoltaic products has safeguarded the interests of the photovoltaic industry of both parties and is a result of mutual benefit and win-win results, which is conducive to the stable and orderly development of China-EU photovoltaic products trade. Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said that the trade volume between China and Europe is huge, and it is normal for trade frictions to occur. It should be treated rationally and handled properly. The EU is China's largest export market for photovoltaic products. Resolving photovoltaic trade frictions through dialogue and consultation will help maintain an open, cooperative, stable, and sustainable development of China-EU economic and trade relations. The results of the negotiations are positive and constructive.
China's exports of photovoltaic products to Europe will still maintain a reasonable scale, but the responses from people in the photovoltaic industry interviewed by reporters from the China Securities Journal vary. For the downstream component companies of the photovoltaic industry chain, especially large manufacturers, the "price limit, limit" will allow Chinese companies to strive to maintain the European market share to accelerate their concentration in the future. But for the majority of SMEs, the door to the European market may be closed to them from then on. Silicon wafer and equipment suppliers in the middle of the photovoltaic industry chain believe that the short-term downstream benefits are difficult to transfer. The polysilicon manufacturers in the upstream of the industry chain believe that the negotiated compromise results mean that the previously expected "double reverse" against polysilicon in Europe will be difficult to carry out, and the "price war" of the polysilicon industry to save itself may come back.
A relevant person in charge of a leading photovoltaic company in Hebei said that after seeing this major good news for the first time, regardless of the weekends and holidays, everyone was taking a break and immediately called on the company's middle-level and above cadres to hold a meeting to discuss the news.
"At present, the industry is spreading the export price of 0.55 euros to 0.57 euros per watt. Although this price is lower than the current selling price of our company, it is not ridiculously low, so that our products will not lose competition in the European market in the future. Advantages. It seems that in the future, our market share in Europe will be maintained. "The person in charge said excitedly on the phone.
According to reports, according to industry consensus, the average cost of photovoltaic modules exported by domestic manufacturers to Europe is as low as 0.45 euros per watt, and there is a certain gap from the price of 0.55 euros per watt, with certain profit margins. The price level of 0.55 euros per watt is close to the average price since November last year. In the future, China's photovoltaic products exported to the European market can still maintain a certain level of gross profit margin, and the gross profit margin on the financial statements of listed photovoltaic production companies is expected to be improved.
Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of the new energy and power equipment industry of Minsheng Securities, said that the results reached by China and the EU are the most direct benefit to the photovoltaic industry by maintaining the European market share in a "limited and limited price" way. This market is still digesting China's photovoltaic products. More than half of the export volume, which in turn brought the company's supply to Europe climbed, which pushed the prices of components, batteries and other products to stop falling and rebound in the second half of the year.
Since the beginning of this year, due to rising demand in emerging markets, the photovoltaic industry has shown signs of "recovering" from the bottom of last year, which caused the price of photovoltaic products, including modules and panels, to rise temporarily from January to February this year. However, according to statistics, Throughout the first half of the year, the prices of photovoltaic products still fell from the end of last year.
Wang Haisheng analyzed that the rise in local market demand has not fundamentally improved the long-term overcapacity problem that has plagued the photovoltaic industry. Therefore, even if the European market will recover in the future due to the dissipation of the negative impact of the "double anti", but the price of photovoltaic products The effect is still limited to stopping the decline in the short term, and a large-scale recovery may still take time. It is expected that the average price of domestic photovoltaic products will not have a big improvement in the short term. Although it is not excluded that some large companies with full orders in the short term may increase prices, in general, as long as the buyer's market structure of photovoltaics does not change, product prices will rise. The continuity does not exist.
Restrictions on total exports accelerate industry reshuffle
Chen Huiqing, director of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, said that the final level of price control negotiated will not be announced, and how the quota for export volume will be allocated among domestic enterprises is still in the research stage and it is not easy to disclose. However, most enterprises are satisfied with this. Through such trade arrangements, enterprises can maintain a reasonable export share. Overall, China can still maintain a 60% market share in the EU. Many people in the industry said that under this plan, there will be more fierce competition among photovoltaic companies. Large manufacturers have limited declines in European shipments, but small factories will sell more market share.
The person in charge of the above-mentioned photovoltaic leading companies believes that the impact of the EU's "dual anti-" has been far-reaching, but from the results of the negotiations, the future competition in the European market will be more conducive to large enterprises, and the total export of 7GW will be concentrated on the ownership Large manufacturers with advantages in channels and government resources.
Wang Haisheng believes that the biggest impact of the result of the China-EU trade dispute negotiation lies in the export volume restrictions. After the low-cost competition in the past few years, the current price level of domestic photovoltaic companies has been comparable, so the impact of the EU "price limit" is not great, but the annual "limit" requirement of not more than 7GW will trigger a new round of domestic The fierce competition of enterprises in the European market, the strength of enterprises will be reflected in whether they can get as much as possible from the 7GW "cake".
A person in charge of a medium-sized silicon wafer and panel manufacturer that has been discontinued for nearly two years in Zhejiang said that in the past, there was no quantity limit in the European market. If small and medium-sized enterprises like them autonomously go to European countries to compete for customers, as long as the price is appropriate and the quality Level crossing, the problem of getting orders is not particularly big. However, once the â€œlimited editionâ€ model is launched for future exports to Europe, it will undoubtedly be more conducive to large enterprises with greater brand influence and smoother sales channels.
Wang Haisheng said that how to allocate the total amount of 7GW will become a problem in front of the Chinese government and the photovoltaic industry. It does not rule out the possibility that photovoltaics will implement a "quota system" for European exports in the future. As a result, the export volume will accelerate to the concentration of large manufacturers. The above-mentioned heads of Zhejiang enterprises believe that if the Chinese government really implements a quota system in the future, it will undoubtedly make SMEs in a dilemma of survival worse. The choice left to them may be to accelerate their withdrawal from the photovoltaic industry.
According to Wang Haisheng's analysis, if the â€œlimitedâ€ model is launched for European PV exports, there may be some differentiation among the more than 40 A-share PV listed companies. In the future, the allocation of quotas may be drawn by the scale of production capacity. Among A-share photovoltaic companies, the capacity of companies such as Hairun Photovoltaic, Yijing Optoelectronics, Zhongli Technology, Dongfang Risheng and Sunflower ranks in the forefront. Under the "system" priority sharing of 7GW "cake".
"Domestic photovoltaic companies are decreasing their dependence on the European market, which means that in the future, their production may no longer be the only one in Europe. In the long run, the main positions for corporate competition will be concentrated in the domestic market and emerging markets such as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. . For companies, do not need to pay too much attention to the gains and losses of the European market. "Wang Haisheng said.
Liang Junmin, deputy general manager of the photovoltaic business department of Shenzhen CLP Investment Co., Ltd., said that once quotas are given, domestic companies may "fight" for them. As a result, large companies may get most of the cake, but small and medium-sized companies that did not participate in the survey There are no quotas for enterprises, and even if they are, it is still a lot of money. It is difficult to maintain survival, so they have to give up the European market.
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